I was just talking to a source inside the Obama campaign about polling in Nevada. Doesn't seem they have anymore confidence in those polls that I do. With no history to fall back on, it's a crapshoot.

In fact, here's my poll prediction. Obama will beat Clinton by one point. Where to I get that? I just guessed, which means I have about as much chance of being right as any of those polls you are reading.

So basically the campaigns are flying blind right now. They will have to concentrate on their ground game, getting their people to the polls. Obama's union endorsements should help here. And hopefully Chris Matthews can pull his head out of his rear long enough to actually talk about issues instead of focusing entirely on the horse race stuff.